Seven drivers go to Sandown and only four come out. Everyone resets to 4,000 points plus a bonus, then two 250 km races decide who goes to the Adelaide Grand Final. I wanted to know exactly what each driver needs, so I worked through every combination of results, then ran my predictor model to see how likely each one is.
The start line
Bonus points come from the order after the Gold Coast (rule D14.4.2.2). A win is worth 150 points and 2nd 138, down to 22 for 24th (Schedule D1), and a car that doesn't finish scores nothing. After the two races, the three lowest scorers are out, unless they won a race. A Finals driver who wins at Sandown goes through whatever their points (rule D14.4.2.3).
Driver
Bonus
Gap to 4th
What each driver needs
Pick a driver. Each square is one combination of their own results, with Race 33 down the side and Race 34 across the top. The colour shows how often they reach Adelaide in my simulations when they finish there. A tick means they're through whatever anyone else does, and a cross means they're out whatever anyone else does. Tap a square for the details.
Tap a square to see the points and what it takes.
Try it yourself
Set where each finalist finishes in both races and see who goes to Adelaide. Places are among all 24 cars, so leave gaps for the non-finalists. Two finalists can't share a place in the same race.
Driver
Race 33
Race 34
Total
How I worked it out
The ticks and crosses are pure maths. For every pair of results a driver could have, I checked every way the other six could finish. If no combination knocks them out, it's a tick. If no combination saves them, it's a cross.
Being "through for certain" is harder than it looks. A driver is out if three others beat them on points or win a race, so two race wins by other finalists can push a driver out even after two strong results. For example, Kostecki finishing 2nd twice is not quite safe: if Mostert and Brown win a race each, Feeney finishes 3rd twice and Payne 4th twice, Kostecki goes out on 372 points to Feeney's 374 and Payne's 384.
The colours come from my Finals predictor. It simulated Sandown 20,000 times for the rest of the field, with the driver placed where you pick, using the same ratings, retirement risk and weather as the main predictor.
The rules don't say how a tie on points is settled at this cut, so the maths counts a tie as a risk, and the simulations break ties at random.