Who wins the 2026 title?

Percentages are the share of simulated seasons each driver won. They're chances, not a promise. This is motorsport, after all.

Updated 25 Oct, after the Gold Coast: Feeney won Race 32 from Kostecki and Mostert, Payne was 6th and Brown 11th. That makes Payne 57%, Kostecki 15%, Feeney 12% and Brown 11%. Wood, Allen and Le Brocq are out, and the seven at Sandown start from Payne 150, Feeney 120, Kostecki 96, Mostert 78, Brown 66, Waters 57 and De Pasquale 48 bonus points.

The road to Adelaide

Ten start on the Gold Coast. The bottom three go out after each Finals round, so seven reach Sandown and four reach Adelaide. A Finals driver who wins a race at the Gold Coast or Sandown can't be knocked out that round (rule D14.4.1.4), so the bottom three come from the drivers who didn't win. Each bar is the chance of getting that far. Drivers who have been knocked out are marked out of contention, because they can no longer reach the next round or win the title.

Gold Coast bonus points are the real starting totals from the Bathurst standings, including +25 for the Sprint Cup (Feeney) and the Enduro Cup (Brown). After Race 31 the Gold Coast totals are Payne 277, Feeney 222, Brown 202, Mostert 189, Kostecki 187, De Pasquale 165, Waters 141, Allen 88, Wood 81 and Le Brocq 47, so Allen, Wood and Le Brocq are in the drop zone with one race left.

The Sandown seven are set. After both Gold Coast races the totals are Payne 376, Feeney 372, Kostecki 325, Mostert 316, Brown 267, Waters 232 and De Pasquale 216, matching the official Supercars Finals table. Ryan Wood (198) missed out by 18 points despite 4th on Sunday, and Kai Allen (143) and Jack Le Brocq (75) are also out. Mostert's Race 32 pit stop is under investigation after the race, but even a penalty couldn't lift Wood past De Pasquale.

Predicted final top ten

The most likely championship order once Adelaide is done. Drivers knocked out drop back to their Bathurst total plus whatever they score after it, so a non-finalist can still finish as high as 8th, 9th or 10th.

Sandown: who wins a race?

Chance of winning either of the two 250 km races at Sandown. Every car still races and scores, so drivers knocked out of the Finals can take points off the title contenders. A finalist who wins at Sandown can't be knocked out there (rule D14.4.2.3). I'll update this with the Sandown forecast and grid.

How the Gold Coast went

Race 32: Feeney at home. Broc Feeney turned pole into a win by 6.9 seconds from Brodie Kostecki, with Chaz Mostert 3rd and Ryan Wood 4th. Payne was 6th from 12th on the grid, and Brown faded to 11th from the front row. It stayed dry, with one safety car on lap 3 after De Pasquale and Allen touched on the pit straight. De Pasquale recovered to 14th, just enough to hold off Wood for the last Sandown place.

Race 31: the perfect race. Chaz Mostert won by 23.5 seconds in the wet, the biggest winning margin ever at the Gold Coast (V8 Sleuth). David Reynolds was 2nd, and Matt Payne crossed the line 2nd but dropped to 3rd with a five-second track-limits penalty. Feeney came home 9th from pole after contact with Payne on lap 15.

The form guide behind it

This is what I fed in. Every factor is scored the same way: an average result where 100 is a win every time, using the endurance points scale so a 2nd is worth 92, a 10th 47 and a 20th 21. Only classified finishes count here, because retirements are handled separately as DNF risk.

Trend is form since Perth minus form in the first five rounds. Wet is The Bend 500, the year's only wet race, blended half and half with season form because one race is a small sample. Enduros are The Bend and Bathurst, which were shared with co-drivers.

How I built it

1. Each driver gets a rating from the factors above, weighted as shown. Will Brown's results before his restrictor was fixed are lifted by half the gap between his form before and after the fix, because the car, not the driver, was holding him back. Each pole adds half a point, and drivers in a team that changed manufacturer this year (Triple Eight to Ford, Walkinshaw and Brad Jones to Toyota) have last year's results counted at half weight, because they were in a different car.
2. Every race, each car's result is its rating plus a random swing. The size of the swing comes from how much results really varied this year. On top of that, each driver gets one swing for the whole weekend, because a car that is off the pace on Saturday usually still is on Sunday. Now that Race 31 is done, that weekend swing starts from how each driver went on Saturday compared with their rating. Only about a sixth of it carries over, because one race is noisy.
3. Each car can also retire. The chance comes from its own record this year, pulled towards the field average so one bad weekend doesn't dominate. Mostert (4 DNFs) and Wood (3) carry the most risk of the ten.
4. Each race has a chance of a wet race. For the Gold Coast it comes from the Bureau of Meteorology forecast: 55% for Saturday and 70% for Sunday. Sandown (25%) and Adelaide (10%) use climate averages until their forecasts are out. In a wet race the order leans 40% towards wet-weather form, with bigger swings and more retirements.
5. Qualifying counts too. Each Gold Coast race leans 40% on its own grid, because passing is hard on a street track. Drivers outside the top ten whose grid slot isn't confirmed are slotted in by rating.
6. Points use the 2026 scales from Schedule D1 of the Sporting Rules: 150 for a 250 km win and 138 for 2nd, then 50 and 125 for the Adelaide races. Bonuses of 150, 120, 96 and 78 go to the leaders into each round, and the cuts happen at 7 and 4.
7. Ties on points are split the official way. Rule D14.4.3.4 settles a tied championship on a countback of every race this season: most wins, then most 2nds, and so on. The rules don't set a tie-break for the Gold Coast and Sandown cuts, so I use the same countback there. A tie decides the title in fewer than 1 in 100 runs, so it barely moves the odds.

The factors I weighed

Data I went looking for

I wanted the deeper data too, like laps led, tyres and the brake pad change. Some of it exists but isn't public in a form I can use, so here's what made it in and what I've ruled out for now.

What it can't see

A model is only as good as what goes into it, and there's plenty it can't know.

• Team-mates racing each other. Grove (Payne and Allen), Triple Eight (Feeney and Brown) and Walkinshaw TWG (Mostert and Wood) each have two cars in the Finals, and team tactics could help one of them.
• 2025 results at these tracks are mostly known. The Gold Coast top ten from both races and most of race 1 are in. Kostecki, De Pasquale and Le Brocq finished outside the top ten on the Sunday, so those places are estimated at 17th, and Kostecki's Saturday at 21st. Sandown and Adelaide are still partial.
• Penalties, safety cars and strategy calls. They show up only as random swings.